Think Barack Obama has McCain beat, based on the polling data which all say that Obama is leading by several points?
If so, you obviously must not know about the blatant and massive, documented pro-Obama and anti-Palin bias in the US media.
But besides that, history has proven that polls consistently favour the Democrat Presidential candidate, overstating support for the Democrats by wide margins of error.
The following is summarized from Ann Coulter’s article:
Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.
1976
Jimmy Carter (D) vs Gerald Ford (R)
Poll predictions: Carter +15 over Ford
Election results: Carter +2.1 over Ford
Bias error: 12.9 points in favour of Democrats
1980
Jimmy Carter (D) vs Ronald Reagan (R)
Poll predictions: Carter +3 over Reagan
Election results: Reagan +10 over Carter
Bias error: 13 points in favour of Democrats
1984
Walter Mondale (D) vs Ronald Reagan (R)
Poll predictions: Reagan +4, +9 or +13 over Mondale
Election results: Reagan +18.8 over Mondale
Bias error: 14.8, 9.8 or 5.8 points in favour of Democrats
1988
Michael Dukakis (D) vs George H.W. Bush (R)
Poll predictions: Bush +5 over Dukakis
Election results: Bush +7.8 over Dukakis
Bias error: 2.8 points in favour of Democrats
1992
Bill Clinton (D) vs George H.W. Bush (R)
Poll predictions: Clinton +15 or +12 over Bush
Election results: Clinton +5.3 over Bush
Bias error: 9.7 or 6.7 points in favour of Democrats
1996
Bill Clinton (D) vs Bob Dole (R)
Poll predictions: Clinton +22 over Dole
Election results: Clinton +9 over Dole
Bias error: 13 points in favour of Democrats
2000
Al Gore (D) vs George W. Bush (R)
Poll predictions: Gore +6 over Bush
Election results: Bush over Gore by a slight margin
Bias error: 6 points in favour of Democrats
2004
John Kerry (D) vs George W. Bush (R)
Poll predictions: Bush +1 to +3 over Kerry
Election results: Bush +2.4 over Kerry
Bias error: 1.4 points in favour of Democrats to 1.6 points in favour of Republicans
2008
Barack Hussein Obama (D) vs John McCain (R)
Poll predictions: Obama over McCain, insert own imaginary number
Election results: Less than two weeks to go
Bias error: As always, in favour of Democrats
I guess the above history lesson might explain the cause behind Voxdays’ Five Point Rule – In general, if a Democrat leads by less than five points in the polls, he loses.
Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
And while we’re on that note, take a look at some of the more objective (read: Non-Obama-leg-tingling) polls.
Such as this one where Obama has but ameasly 2.8-point lead over McCain.
——————————
UPDATE 2012: Okay, so Obama won in 2008.
See also via AoSHQ, from Powerline:
—————–
UPDATE: The media does this on purpose, to discourage voters from even voting. See also via AoSHQ this piece on How Carter Beat Reagan (not a typo!).
And the Obama campaign might try this for 2012.
Here might be what’s happenng too – editors fudge results, the Shy Tory Factor, and a version of The Bradley Effect.
Tags: Ann Coulter, Barack Obama, john mccain, Mccain poll, obama leads in poll, obama poll, Obamedia, poll bias, president poll, US Presidential poll
October 23, 08 at 6:55 am
WASHINGTON (AP) – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20081022/D93VPI9O0.html
October 23, 08 at 6:57 am
IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten
Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama’s lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He’s also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he’s gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.
View Results From Prior Days
About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD’s polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at http://www.TIPPonline.com.
October 23, 08 at 4:30 pm
the media will always favor the democratic party, politics would be better if there wasn’t democrats and republicans and just issues to decide on
October 24, 08 at 12:34 am
Ex NYT Reporter will LIE for food:
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/10/new-york-times.html
October 24, 08 at 2:04 am
THE YEAR THE MEDIA DIED
How 2008 presidential election demolished credibility of ‘mainstream’ press
The mask is off. The pretense over.
After decades of pretending they’re not biased leftward – even though everyone else knew it – America’s “mainstream media” have finally, during 2008, dropped the façade of fairness and impartiality…
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=76890
October 25, 08 at 2:01 am
Dear internet citizens,
———————————–
Please check this out. Thanks.
http://myforeignspouse.wordpress.com
——————————————
October 25, 08 at 6:23 am
So a Genocidal Dictator and a Liberal Senator Walk Into a Bar . . .
With all the tension and anger over the election, it’s nice to know that some people are able to keep their sense of humor. From the Associated Press:
“A Republican county election clerk distributed copies of an apparent chain letter referring to Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as a “young, black Adolf Hitler” to two employees but later told police she intended it to be a joke.”
Hmmm, somehow that doesn’t seem very funny. Maybe we have to read on to get to the punch line? Let’s see:
The letter does not mention Obama by name but makes references to his ties to a Chicago church whose pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, adheres to black liberation theology. It is heavy with racial references, criticizing the candidate’s parentage with such comments as, “He is proud of his ‘African heritage’ (a father who got a white girl pregnant and deserted her)” and asking, “Where is the pride in his ‘White heritage?’ ”
The unsigned letter urges readers to send it to everyone they know.
“The U.S. citizens are just not ready to give up their country to this young, black ‘Adolf Hitler’ with a smile, poor direction and absolutely no experience!” it said.
Sorry, but this just is not funny–indeed, it is downright offensive. The only way to save this joke is to add a punch line of our own. Here goes:
The author of the letter, Jill Jackson, said she was a recent graduate of the John Kerry Comedy School.
October 25, 08 at 9:27 pm
conservative calling conservative blogs more objective? yea
October 27, 08 at 4:06 pm
Obama will win…… Bush is only good for the defence industry
October 27, 08 at 5:12 pm
Yeah and with Obama the US Army will be with catapults hahahaha.
October 29, 08 at 9:43 pm
No man. US Army will be busy praying 5 times a day they will have not time for war. OTOH they could team up with Iran and attack France, that Sarkozy bloke has been saying nasty things of Obama.
November 3, 08 at 1:21 am
[...] BUUUUURRRRNING HOT summarizes Ann’s findings. 1976 Jimmy Carter (D) vs Gerald Ford (R) Poll predictions: Carter +15 over Ford Election results: Carter +2.1 over Ford Bias error: 12.9 points in favour of Democrats [...]
November 25, 08 at 11:59 pm
People still listen to / read what Man Coulter has to say? That woman is a vile rhetoric spewing meanie!