Why Obama Will Lose November 2012


UPDATE 6 NOVEMBER 2012: The title of this post changed posthumously to ‘Why Obama Should Have Lost November 2012′.

————————————

So here is the laundry list of why I firmly believe Obama is headed out the door come Election 2012.

- JOB JOBS JOBS – it’s still the economy stupid! Romney is 12 points ahead on the economy. Here’s a few dozen graphs and videos proving that Obama’s 4 years not only failed to restore the economy, but instead made it WORSE! And from the many, these few in particular are very telling about the election:

one key economic data component has been quite good at predicting presidential elections, and that is consumer confidence. If the consumer confidence index is at 100 or higher, then the incumbent party is likely to win. If not, then the opposition party wins

The table above shows that consumer confidence levels correctly predicted the outcome in 9 of the past 11 presidential elections… The near-perfect predictive power of the consumer confidence index essentially says that at the time of voting, the single most important issue comes down to the economy. As James Carville once said, “it’s the economy, stupid!” Forget the tough talks on terrorism or the flowery talks of hope; voters are rewarding or punishing the incumbent on the economy.

- Polls have Obama barely ahead, tied or even behind by a whole bunch – Romney is ahead by 12 on the economy, 10 on national security, and 8 on job creation and energy policy! And remember, pre-election polls always slant towards the Democrat.

- Romney is on track to win the popular vote:

But the one scenario that political scientists deem virtually impossible is one where undecideds who have declined to support the incumbent all year suddenly break heavily in favor of him. For most of the remaining undecideds, the choice is between voting for the challenger and staying home… it’s also relatively rare for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College

- And personally Obama is being viewed more and more as unlikeable.

- No incumbent has won since 1930 when tied before the election eve! Romney is now actually running ahead of previous challengers.

- Debate one was the turning point where people realized Romney is a viable challenger, not some monster as caricatured by the liberal media – my coverage and outtakes here. In one night, Romney undid months and millions that Obama spent caricaturing him.

- Further debates solidified that positive perception, with more and more voters inclined for Romney and fewer for Obama. Romney managed the third debate by keeping cool and confident as he wooed voters and portrayed likeability while Obama snarked and combated. Tipped by wits0, the debates boosted Romney’s favorability:

- Obama’s firewall of formerly unassailable states is crumbling fast!

- Obamacare – it’s always been massively unpopular. Now that it’s been upheld – and declared a massive tax! – Romney benefits from the wave of support to repeal the hated law.

- Operation Fast & Furious and the invoking of executive privilege.

- The Bengazhi consulate massacre, and now CIA head David Petraeus is pointing the finger at Obama and a retired admiral is criticizing the cowardly nonaction.

- The preference cascade. The more people start admitting they are disappointed by Obama and won’t support him this time around, the more others are encouraged to reveal their true feelings because it’s suddenly ‘acceptable’ to. This can lead to an avalanche where there didn’t seem to be even a snowflake before. Further explanation about this phenomenon at here.

- Liberal media – which was in lockstep with him in 2008 now openly dissenting.

- Demo-rats fleeing the sinking ship as they sense impending defeat.

- Other formerly staunch supporters are ditching him in droves, narrow appeal.

- His 2008 crowd is unenthusedDems 10 times more unenthused than GOP (tipped by wits0).

- Whereas GOP supporters are much more fired up than in 2008 – in fact, it’s at an all time high!

- Further to that, Pew finds that 76% of GOP likely to vote, vs 62% Dem.

- Empty stadium – even at just 51 bucks a seat. Obama can’t even fill 5000 people. Meanwhile, thousands had to be turned away from Romney rally that can fit ten thousand.

- Two days to go, and Romney’s rally draws 30,000 against Obama’s 4,000! Photo tipped by wits0:

- Bain is a huge plus, not a minus, for Romney.

- Romney is a Mormon which still rubs many Evangelicals and Protestants the wrong way – but Obama sent him their support by default thanks to his abortion and gay marriage stances.

- The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. And he is favored by Independents by 19 points! That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win!

- And guess who said that independents are what matters? Why, none other than Nate Silver…

- Swing voters have hugely unfavorable views of Obama. Meanwhile, Romney’s favorability keeps improving – especially among Independents. He’s also closed the gap with women and with affluent suburbs – more than any Republican in 20 years.

- Whoever wins the Independents also usually wins the important Ohio state.

- All this swing voter support comes into play for the Electoral College… No toss ups has the vote solidly in Obama’s hands:

…But factoring in the swing states has it a very much closer race, with only a 10-vote gap and 146 swing votes up for grabs to the most favored candidate:

Above two screenshots as at 30 October 2012, one week to the election. For instance, Ohio almost always outperforms the national average in support for the Republican.

- Michael Barone at The Examiner goes state by state and comes up with Romney 315, Obama 223.

- Meanwhile, the pro-Democrat Washington Post has moved Ohio from ‘Lean Obama’ to Toss Up. Pennsylvania and its 20 votes is in play.

- And Romney is outspending Obama in all states, to the tune of $30 million.

- And Romney is ahead by 1-2 points in Iowa according to multiple pollsters.

- Ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin.

- Liberal, democrat papers are endorsing Romney. Add the Florida Sun SentineL flipping to him:

We believe Romney’s past performance is a predictor of his future behavior. He’s proven himself to be a successful businessman. He rescued the 2002 Winter Olympics from scandal and mismanagement. He worked with a Democrat-dominated legislature as governor of Massachusetts to close a $3 billion budget deficit — without borrowing and raising taxes.

And the almost 100%-endorse-the-Democrat, Des Moines register:

Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.

Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress to achieve these goals? When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate.

The former governor and business executive has a strong record of achievement in both the private and the public sectors. He was an accomplished governor in a liberal state. He founded and ran a successful business that turned around failing companies. He successfully managed the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.

Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly so.

As well as the other three leading Iowa newspapers… Did I say three? Make it the other FIVE biggest papers.

- And Chicago’s second biggest paper, The Daily Herald. As well as one of the largest and most influential New Hampshire papers, the Nashua Telegraph which flips to Romney..=

…What was that about a preference cascade? List of endorsements for each side here, and Romney clearly outnumbers Obama. This matters because newspapers are a proxy for their readers.

- Ouch, the Las Vegas Review Journal – the largest daily circulation paper in Nevada doesn’t spare the flames for Obama on Benghazi, the economy and energy!

- Speaking of Benghazi… Obama revealed refusing to call it a terrorist attack on national news.

- The Wisconsin Journal joins 29 other papers in flipping to Romney – versus just 3 that flipped to Obama.

- Early voter polls seem to lean heavily for Obama, but this is actually likely due to respondents lying to look good. UPDATE: Indeed, early voting now favors Romney.

- Obama is cannibalizing Ohio early voters who would have voted for him anyway come Election Day, while Romney has focused of getting low-propensity voters in addition to likely Election Day voters. Obama counties voter turnout are down while Bush/McCain counties are up.

- Ohio early voting is seeing a 270,000 vote swing towards Romney

- Romney has cut Obama’s early voter advantage in Iowa by 75%.

- Republicans outperform Democrats in Pennsylvania absentee ballots, 55% against 36%.

- Renowned war correspondent Michael Yon anti-endorses Obama:

And there he was. Our new President. I determined to support him until he proved unworthy. Almost four years later, many people have snapped out of the trance, and that includes many non-Americans here in Asia. Obama’s magic wand has been broken over the knee of reality.

I cannot speak about the economy, education or healthcare, but I can speak about Afghanistan. Obama cannot be faulted that Afghanistan is stone-aged, or that our military strategy was wrecked when he took office. It was. The bus was in a ditch. Obama showed up with a wrecker, promising to yank it out. Today the wrecker is in the ditch atop the bus.

Our young troops are something to be proud of, and if you saw them in action you would be amazed at their courage and professionalism. The mess we shoved them into is a national shame. We provided about half the troops required for the stated strategy, then began pulling them out against a domestic political deadline that has nothing to do with the war. The surge has been a complete waste of effort.

- Lots of graphs and analysis of past data and current trends, from Dem vs GOP voter turnout, party crossover votes, Independents, the 2010 elections, nonWhite voters all point to a Romney win.

- A list of tweets via here.

- Big names including a Las Vegas odds maker predict a Romney win.

- Karl Rove lists several of the above as his reasons why he thinks Romney will win.

- On why Intrade players and Obama supporters refuse to believe that he will lose.

- Tipped by wits0: 500 high ranking military figures endorse Romney, including top generals and Pentagon brass!

- Obama could lose from 13% to 16% of supporters – who could also double the blow by voting for Romney!

- Ace lays out his condensed reasons here… Especially on how it is absurd to expect LARGER Democrat turnout than in 2008 or 2010! I mean, CNN gets a 49-49 tie with D+11 – that is, with an eleven point advantage in turnout, Obama still only manages a tie! Especially when Republican affiliation advantage keeps growing.

- While back in reality, for the first time IN HISTORY, Republicans outnumber Democrats on election day according to two major polling firms!

- Less serious… The Redskin Rule favors Romney.

- The Complete List of Barack Obama’s Scandals, Misdeeds, Crimes and Blunders here!


23 Responses to “Why Obama Will Lose November 2012”

  1. Scott Thong, Leading Malaysian Neocon | weehingthong Says:

    [...] Why Obama Will Lose November 2012 [...]

  2. Ron Says:

    Up to 40 percent may vote early in election; Obama ahead

    By Deborah Charles

    WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:41pm EDT

    (Reuters) – Early voters could account for up to 40 percent of all voters in the 2012 presidential election, and polls of people who already have cast ballots show President Barack Obama with a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

    Both candidates have been urging supporters not just to vote but to do it early as Republicans and Democrats campaign vigorously – particularly in key battleground states – to lock up as many votes as possible before Election Day on November 6.

    Polls of people who say they already have voted show Obama with a lead in many of the states. The Obama campaign, which benefited from early voting in 2008, has focused heavily on urging supporters to vote early in this election as well.

    Obama leads Romney 54 percent to 39 percent among voters who already have cast ballots, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks. The sample size of early voters is 960 people with a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/26/us-usa-campaign-voting-idUSBRE89P15920121026

  3. Scott Thong Says:

    Ah yes, the early voting data… Notoriously inaccurate as I’ve been reading lately:

    Remember, these are the same exact people who just stated that 100% of their votes either went to Obama or Romney, and at least 6% of the sample changed their vote within the span of 2 questions. How is this possible? The obvious answer is: People are lying about having voted early, and the pollsters are incapable of figuring out if people actually voted. – NEVADA POLL: EARLY VOTERS FORGET HOW THEY VOTED IN SPAN OF TWO QUESTIONS

    Remember that 76-24% early vote lead Obama had last weekend? This week, that fell to 66-34%, a 20 point swing in Romney’s direction. And when you do the math, Obama’s “locked in” early vote dropped from 823,000 votes last weekend, to 790,020 this weekend. Romney went from 260,000 votes locked in to 407,000 over the same time. Remember, PPP was measuring votes that are already cast. These people can’t change their minds, so such an excuse doesn’t fly. But if we trust PPP, Romney not only got 100% of every vote cast over the last week, but another 30,000 people walked into their local voting location and changed their already cast ballots from Obama to Romney.PPP OH POLL: OBAMA LOSES 33,000 EARLY VOTES IN ONE WEEK

    Also there’s these posts by Ace who’s keeping close tabs on the race, recently especially early voting.

    And he made a point (which I can’t find right now, .mu.nu sites are horrible for searching past posts) – those who claim to have voted early or are likely voters also say they voted Obama. This may be interlinked due to both being more ‘socially acceptable/expected’ – those polled are afraid to look dumb/racist/whatever for not having already voted, not really likely to bother to go and vote, or not supporting The Transcendental Black President TM. Similar to how polls seem to show growing support for gay marriage, but when it comes down to secret ballots those measures (such as Proposition 8) always get rejected in each state.

  4. Scott Thong Says:

    One thing thought… The much vaunted Intrade constantly has Romney for President unable to break and hold 40%. What do they know that the rest of the polls don’t?

  5. Scott Thong Says:

    Ah – it’s called the Bradley effect.

  6. Scott Thong Says:

    Added the Electoral College forecast – if it comes down to battleground states, it’s a very close fight to the finish.

  7. Ron Dell Says:

    The Bradley effect is something different Scott. That’s when you wouldn’t vote for a black man but you tell people (like pollsters) that you would, because you’re concerned at how you’ll be perceived. Intrade and other betting markets are anonymous, so what people will think of your expressed choice isn’t a factor.

    If you have a look around you will find that Intrade is an outlier, but probably not in the way you think. Sports books in every continent have Romney about a 33% shot.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

    That’s the consensus of people who mainly aren’t US citizens and who have no baggage: no party affiliation and no dogma to hold on to. The only skin they have in the game is estimating the probability accurately, with massive financial penalties when they get it wrong (they lose their bets!).

    Given the number of Republicans who have their money patriotically stashed in Switzerland, Asia or the Caribbean, you would think they’d be piling in to bet on a Romney win. There aren’t many investment opportunities out there that can treble your money in a week.

  8. Scott Thong Says:

    Actually I meant the Bradley Effect with regards to why early vote polling seems so heavily Obama.

    You have a point on the mercenary betting thing, though I suspect that many nonAmericans lean towards Obama (witness his adoration in Europe).

    I recall the South Park creators discussing their 2008 election episode, how they relied on their most trusted guide to determine who to put as the eventual winner – a betting service.

    But if all the betting odds are right, what of the above consumer confidence guide?

  9. Scott Thong Says:

    Update on the early voting: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334397.php

    And a rehash of how ‘Likely Voter’ is sometimes a very low hurdle to cross: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334400.php

  10. hutchrun Says:

    test

  11. hutchrun Says:

    Mitt Romney Looks and Sounds Like a Man About to Become President

    RUSH: You want to hear some other numbers? You heard the unemployment numbers. The gasoline price, $1.84 when Obama took office; $3.50 national average today. On his first day in office there were 32 million Americans on food stamps. Today 47 million. On his first day in office, the deficit was $10.6 trillion. Today the national debt, $16.3 trillion. He’s added $6 trillion to the national debt in four years. When Obama was sworn in, the median family income, about $55,000. Today, 50. So nearly $4,500, $5,000 has been lopped off of the median family income. One in six Americans are in poverty.
    No matter how you look at it, no matter how you spin it, no matter how you slice and dice it, Obama has made things worse.

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/11/02/mitt_romney_looks_and_sounds_like_a_man_about_to_become_president

  12. hutchrun Says:

    And as Hugh Hewitt puts it:

    Everything he touches turns to, well, mud.

    From the first month’s promise to keep unemployment below 8% and drive it to 5.6% by now, to the Stimulus, Obamacare, Egypt and Libya, Fast & Furious, the csars and his EPA –on and on and on. It all just falls apart………..

    My confidence in Romney is actually my confidence in the country. The angry Obamians who tweet out invective on a 24/7 basis are just the remnant of the vast Obama battalions of four years ago. Napoleon’s army retreating after a four year winter of the reality of Euro-style enormous government and deficits. As Reagan swept in to make all good again in 1981, so Romney will arrive in January.

    I hope the good people of New York and New Jersey can hold it together until then when the curse of the photo op president is broken. The 15-minute promise has already been broken, again and again, just like the commitment to our men in Benghazi and to countless allies and friends around the world.

    Voters know. The left thinks the president got a bounce out of his fly-over with Chris Christie. A “dead cat” bounce perhaps, but most Americans get the whole picture and know what he can and cannot do, and are increasingly reminded of his many big promises of the past. The the Katrina standard is at work already.

    “Winter is coming” is the motto of the Starks in Game of Thrones. If Obama some how snatched a second term, we could all borrow the phrase.

    http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/6a44e432-6307-4882-aec3-8c443e115d2f

  13. hutchrun Says:

    As Obama motorcade rolls by, Ohio citizens demand truth about Benghazi

    http://twitchy.com/2012/11/02/as-obama-motorcade-rolls-by-ohio-citizens-demand-truth-about-benghazi/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter

  14. Joe Biden Says:

    “There’s never been a day in the last four years I’ve been proud to be his vice president. Not one single day. Not one single day.”

  15. Bill Clinton Says:

    “I May Be The Only Person in America More Enthusiastic” About Obama This Time…

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8bc_1351886924

  16. Joe Biden Says:

    “You need to take a vacation!”

    “Well, I’m going to take a vacation about about three days after this election is over,”

  17. Joe Biden Says:

    POLL: 63% Want 2nd Term — in China!

    http://www.france24.com/en/20121102-china-japan-citizens-back-obama-second-term-poll-shows

  18. Ron Says:

  19. Scott Thong Says:

    Here’s another following the Bradley Effect:

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334658.php

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

  20. Ron Says:

    This happened because of you. Thank you.— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) November 6, 2012

  21. Scott Thong Says:

    I have posthumously updated the top of the page.

  22. scott's thong Says:

    HA HA HA

  23. Ron Says:

    Romney’s final share of the vote? You guessed it: 47 percent.

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