Could Obama Lose the Election Even Though He’s Ahead in the Polls?

Check out the latest polling numbers (especially those polls not carried out by the Obamessiah-worshiping Obamedia).

From Gateway Pundit, note how Obama only has between a 3 to 6 percent lead if you ignore the slavering Lie-beral media results:

Notice anything odd yet predictable? The three polls done by MSM outlets are the outliers (outliars?). A coincidence? I don’t think so. It’s been like that for months. Now pull those out and do the math.

Obama and McCain are ‘functionally’ tied:

Despite widespread polling to the contrary, McInturff wrote that the campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states with our numbers improving sharply over the last four tracks.

As other public polls begin to show Sen. Obama dropping below 50 percent and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday, he said.

And the lead Obama has over McCain might even be as low as a mere 2.8%:

So Obama is still ahead in basically all the polls (by very slightly, a negligible lead well within the margin of error for these kind of statistics). So much for that landslide walkover… But why do I conjecture that he might still lose?

Because historically, pre-election polls have been shown to be biased in favour of the Democrat candidate.

In 8 Presidential elections over 32 years, the polls have – without fail – overstated public support for the Democratic candidate. The margin of error has been by anywhere between 0 to 14.8 points, as compared to actual voting day results.

That means that Obama, with his mere 2.8 point lead, could be in for a loss as bad as 12 points behind McCain come actual voting day.

That was polling in general. For Obama specifically, polls overestimated Obama’s strength by 7% throughout this year.

The world may yet survive this American election.

UPDATE 1 NOV 2008: Wouldn’t you know it! On a tip from hutchrun, Zogby’s poll shows McCain ahead of Obama by one point!

Following from Day by Day:


Following from Day by Day:


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5 Responses to “Could Obama Lose the Election Even Though He’s Ahead in the Polls?”

  1. hutchrun Says:

    Drudgereport Nov.1:

    ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error… The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…

  2. Curiosidades políticas estadounidenses: Demócrata vs Republicano « Sarah Palin en Español Says:

    […] HOT, que se define como el “Principal Neocon Malayo”. Y que, por cierto, dice hoy mismo que “el mundo puede todavía sobrevivir a estas elecciones”, porque cree que McCain […]

  3. Zack R Says:

    Great post. McCain supporters need to “Act as though it were impossible to fail,” to quote an old but true aphorism. Vote and volunteer as if your nation and your kids’ future depneds on it, because we may well have a stunning upset on our hands Tuesday.

  4. Shan Says:

    The world needs a change from old policies to new. People should vote for a person who signifies the change.

  5. u people are retarded Says:

    well…HE WON DA DAYM TING…get a life and ge over it u should comit suicideXXXX

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