UPDATE 6 NOVEMBER 2012: The title of this post changed posthumously to ‘Why Obama Should Have Lost November 2012′.
So here is the laundry list of why I firmly believe Obama is headed out the door come Election 2012.
– JOB JOBS JOBS – it’s still the economy stupid! Romney is 12 points ahead on the economy. Here’s a few dozen graphs and videos proving that Obama’s 4 years not only failed to restore the economy, but instead made it WORSE! And from the many, these few in particular are very telling about the election:
one key economic data component has been quite good at predicting presidential elections, and that is consumer confidence. If the consumer confidence index is at 100 or higher, then the incumbent party is likely to win. If not, then the opposition party wins
The table above shows that consumer confidence levels correctly predicted the outcome in 9 of the past 11 presidential elections… The near-perfect predictive power of the consumer confidence index essentially says that at the time of voting, the single most important issue comes down to the economy. As James Carville once said, “it’s the economy, stupid!” Forget the tough talks on terrorism or the flowery talks of hope; voters are rewarding or punishing the incumbent on the economy.
– Polls have Obama barely ahead, tied or even behind by a whole bunch – Romney is ahead by 12 on the economy, 10 on national security, and 8 on job creation and energy policy! And remember, pre-election polls always slant towards the Democrat.
– Romney is on track to win the popular vote:
But the one scenario that political scientists deem virtually impossible is one where undecideds who have declined to support the incumbent all year suddenly break heavily in favor of him. For most of the remaining undecideds, the choice is between voting for the challenger and staying home… it’s also relatively rare for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College
– And personally Obama is being viewed more and more as unlikeable.
– Debate one was the turning point where people realized Romney is a viable challenger, not some monster as caricatured by the liberal media – my coverage and outtakes here. In one night, Romney undid months and millions that Obama spent caricaturing him.
– Further debates solidified that positive perception, with more and more voters inclined for Romney and fewer for Obama. Romney managed the third debate by keeping cool and confident as he wooed voters and portrayed likeability while Obama snarked and combated. Tipped by wits0, the debates boosted Romney’s favorability:
– Obama’s firewall of formerly unassailable states is crumbling fast!
– Operation Fast & Furious and the invoking of executive privilege.
– The Bengazhi consulate massacre, and now CIA head David Petraeus is pointing the finger at Obama and a retired admiral is criticizing the cowardly nonaction.
– The preference cascade. The more people start admitting they are disappointed by Obama and won’t support him this time around, the more others are encouraged to reveal their true feelings because it’s suddenly ‘acceptable’ to. This can lead to an avalanche where there didn’t seem to be even a snowflake before. Further explanation about this phenomenon at here.
– Further to that, Pew finds that 76% of GOP likely to vote, vs 62% Dem.
– Empty stadium – even at just 51 bucks a seat. Obama can’t even fill 5000 people. Meanwhile, thousands had to be turned away from Romney rally that can fit ten thousand.
– Bain is a huge plus, not a minus, for Romney.
– Romney is a Mormon which still rubs many Evangelicals and Protestants the wrong way – but Obama sent him their support by default thanks to his abortion and gay marriage stances.
– The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. And he is favored by Independents by 19 points! That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win!
– And guess who said that independents are what matters? Why, none other than Nate Silver…
– Swing voters have hugely unfavorable views of Obama. Meanwhile, Romney’s favorability keeps improving – especially among Independents. He’s also closed the gap with women and with affluent suburbs – more than any Republican in 20 years.
– Whoever wins the Independents also usually wins the important Ohio state.
– All this swing voter support comes into play for the Electoral College… No toss ups has the vote solidly in Obama’s hands:
…But factoring in the swing states has it a very much closer race, with only a 10-vote gap and 146 swing votes up for grabs to the most favored candidate:
Above two screenshots as at 30 October 2012, one week to the election. For instance, Ohio almost always outperforms the national average in support for the Republican.
– Michael Barone at The Examiner goes state by state and comes up with Romney 315, Obama 223.
– Meanwhile, the pro-Democrat Washington Post has moved Ohio from ‘Lean Obama’ to Toss Up. Pennsylvania and its 20 votes is in play.
– And Romney is ahead by 1-2 points in Iowa according to multiple pollsters.
– Ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin.
We believe Romney’s past performance is a predictor of his future behavior. He’s proven himself to be a successful businessman. He rescued the 2002 Winter Olympics from scandal and mismanagement. He worked with a Democrat-dominated legislature as governor of Massachusetts to close a $3 billion budget deficit — without borrowing and raising taxes.
And the almost 100%-endorse-the-Democrat, Des Moines register:
Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.
Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress to achieve these goals? When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate.
The former governor and business executive has a strong record of achievement in both the private and the public sectors. He was an accomplished governor in a liberal state. He founded and ran a successful business that turned around failing companies. He successfully managed the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.
Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly so.
– Ouch, the Las Vegas Review Journal – the largest daily circulation paper in Nevada doesn’t spare the flames for Obama on Benghazi, the economy and energy!
– Speaking of Benghazi… Obama revealed refusing to call it a terrorist attack on national news.
– The Wisconsin Journal joins 29 other papers in flipping to Romney – versus just 3 that flipped to Obama.
– Obama is cannibalizing Ohio early voters who would have voted for him anyway come Election Day, while Romney has focused of getting low-propensity voters in addition to likely Election Day voters. Obama counties voter turnout are down while Bush/McCain counties are up.
– Ohio early voting is seeing a 270,000 vote swing towards Romney
– Romney has cut Obama’s early voter advantage in Iowa by 75%.
– Republicans outperform Democrats in Pennsylvania absentee ballots, 55% against 36%.
– Renowned war correspondent Michael Yon anti-endorses Obama:
And there he was. Our new President. I determined to support him until he proved unworthy. Almost four years later, many people have snapped out of the trance, and that includes many non-Americans here in Asia. Obama’s magic wand has been broken over the knee of reality.
I cannot speak about the economy, education or healthcare, but I can speak about Afghanistan. Obama cannot be faulted that Afghanistan is stone-aged, or that our military strategy was wrecked when he took office. It was. The bus was in a ditch. Obama showed up with a wrecker, promising to yank it out. Today the wrecker is in the ditch atop the bus.
Our young troops are something to be proud of, and if you saw them in action you would be amazed at their courage and professionalism. The mess we shoved them into is a national shame. We provided about half the troops required for the stated strategy, then began pulling them out against a domestic political deadline that has nothing to do with the war. The surge has been a complete waste of effort.
– Lots of graphs and analysis of past data and current trends, from Dem vs GOP voter turnout, party crossover votes, Independents, the 2010 elections, nonWhite voters all point to a Romney win.
– A list of tweets via here.
– Big names including a Las Vegas odds maker predict a Romney win.
– Karl Rove lists several of the above as his reasons why he thinks Romney will win.
– On why Intrade players and Obama supporters refuse to believe that he will lose.
– Obama could lose from 13% to 16% of supporters – who could also double the blow by voting for Romney!
– Ace lays out his condensed reasons here… Especially on how it is absurd to expect LARGER Democrat turnout than in 2008 or 2010! I mean, CNN gets a 49-49 tie with D+11 – that is, with an eleven point advantage in turnout, Obama still only manages a tie! Especially when Republican affiliation advantage keeps growing.
– While back in reality, for the first time IN HISTORY, Republicans outnumber Democrats on election day according to two major polling firms!
– Less serious… The Redskin Rule favors Romney.