Archive for the ‘The World’ Category

Why Obama Will Lose November 2012

October 23, 12

UPDATE 6 NOVEMBER 2012: The title of this post changed posthumously to ‘Why Obama Should Have Lost November 2012’.

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So here is the laundry list of why I firmly believe Obama is headed out the door come Election 2012.

JOB JOBS JOBS – it’s still the economy stupid! Romney is 12 points ahead on the economy. Here’s a few dozen graphs and videos proving that Obama’s 4 years not only failed to restore the economy, but instead made it WORSE! And from the many, these few in particular are very telling about the election:

one key economic data component has been quite good at predicting presidential elections, and that is consumer confidence. If the consumer confidence index is at 100 or higher, then the incumbent party is likely to win. If not, then the opposition party wins

The table above shows that consumer confidence levels correctly predicted the outcome in 9 of the past 11 presidential elections… The near-perfect predictive power of the consumer confidence index essentially says that at the time of voting, the single most important issue comes down to the economy. As James Carville once said, “it’s the economy, stupid!” Forget the tough talks on terrorism or the flowery talks of hope; voters are rewarding or punishing the incumbent on the economy.

– Polls have Obama barely ahead, tied or even behind by a whole bunch – Romney is ahead by 12 on the economy, 10 on national security, and 8 on job creation and energy policy! And remember, pre-election polls always slant towards the Democrat.

– Romney is on track to win the popular vote:

But the one scenario that political scientists deem virtually impossible is one where undecideds who have declined to support the incumbent all year suddenly break heavily in favor of him. For most of the remaining undecideds, the choice is between voting for the challenger and staying home… it’s also relatively rare for a candidate to win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College

– And personally Obama is being viewed more and more as unlikeable.

– No incumbent has won since 1930 when tied before the election eve! Romney is now actually running ahead of previous challengers.

– Debate one was the turning point where people realized Romney is a viable challenger, not some monster as caricatured by the liberal media – my coverage and outtakes here. In one night, Romney undid months and millions that Obama spent caricaturing him.

– Further debates solidified that positive perception, with more and more voters inclined for Romney and fewer for Obama. Romney managed the third debate by keeping cool and confident as he wooed voters and portrayed likeability while Obama snarked and combated. Tipped by wits0, the debates boosted Romney’s favorability:

– Obama’s firewall of formerly unassailable states is crumbling fast!

– Obamacare – it’s always been massively unpopular. Now that it’s been upheld – and declared a massive tax! – Romney benefits from the wave of support to repeal the hated law.

Operation Fast & Furious and the invoking of executive privilege.

– The Bengazhi consulate massacre, and now CIA head David Petraeus is pointing the finger at Obama and a retired admiral is criticizing the cowardly nonaction.

– The preference cascade. The more people start admitting they are disappointed by Obama and won’t support him this time around, the more others are encouraged to reveal their true feelings because it’s suddenly ‘acceptable’ to. This can lead to an avalanche where there didn’t seem to be even a snowflake before. Further explanation about this phenomenon at here.

– Liberal media – which was in lockstep with him in 2008 now openly dissenting.

– Demo-rats fleeing the sinking ship as they sense impending defeat.

– Other formerly staunch supporters are ditching him in droves, narrow appeal.

– His 2008 crowd is unenthusedDems 10 times more unenthused than GOP (tipped by wits0).

– Whereas GOP supporters are much more fired up than in 2008 – in fact, it’s at an all time high!

– Further to that, Pew finds that 76% of GOP likely to vote, vs 62% Dem.

Empty stadium – even at just 51 bucks a seat. Obama can’t even fill 5000 people. Meanwhile, thousands had to be turned away from Romney rally that can fit ten thousand.

– Two days to go, and Romney’s rally draws 30,000 against Obama’s 4,000! Photo tipped by wits0:

– Bain is a huge plus, not a minus, for Romney.

– Romney is a Mormon which still rubs many Evangelicals and Protestants the wrong way – but Obama sent him their support by default thanks to his abortion and gay marriage stances.

– The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. And he is favored by Independents by 19 points! That’s something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan’s landslide 1984 reelection win!

– And guess who said that independents are what matters? Why, none other than Nate Silver…

– Swing voters have hugely unfavorable views of Obama. Meanwhile, Romney’s favorability keeps improving – especially among Independents. He’s also closed the gap with women and with affluent suburbs – more than any Republican in 20 years.

– Whoever wins the Independents also usually wins the important Ohio state.

– All this swing voter support comes into play for the Electoral College… No toss ups has the vote solidly in Obama’s hands:

…But factoring in the swing states has it a very much closer race, with only a 10-vote gap and 146 swing votes up for grabs to the most favored candidate:

Above two screenshots as at 30 October 2012, one week to the election. For instance, Ohio almost always outperforms the national average in support for the Republican.

– Michael Barone at The Examiner goes state by state and comes up with Romney 315, Obama 223.

– Meanwhile, the pro-Democrat Washington Post has moved Ohio from ‘Lean Obama’ to Toss Up. Pennsylvania and its 20 votes is in play.

– And Romney is outspending Obama in all states, to the tune of $30 million.

– And Romney is ahead by 1-2 points in Iowa according to multiple pollsters.

Ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin.

Liberal, democrat papers are endorsing Romney. Add the Florida Sun SentineL flipping to him:

We believe Romney’s past performance is a predictor of his future behavior. He’s proven himself to be a successful businessman. He rescued the 2002 Winter Olympics from scandal and mismanagement. He worked with a Democrat-dominated legislature as governor of Massachusetts to close a $3 billion budget deficit — without borrowing and raising taxes.

And the almost 100%-endorse-the-Democrat, Des Moines register:

Our discussion repeatedly circled back to the nation’s single most important challenge: pulling the economy out of the doldrums, getting more Americans back in the workforce in meaningful jobs with promising futures, and getting the federal government on a track to balance the budget in a bipartisan manner that the country demands.

Which candidate could forge the compromises in Congress to achieve these goals? When the question is framed in those terms, Mitt Romney emerges the stronger candidate.

The former governor and business executive has a strong record of achievement in both the private and the public sectors. He was an accomplished governor in a liberal state. He founded and ran a successful business that turned around failing companies. He successfully managed the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.

Romney has made rebuilding the economy his No. 1 campaign priority — and rightly so.

As well as the other three leading Iowa newspapers… Did I say three? Make it the other FIVE biggest papers.

– And Chicago’s second biggest paper, The Daily Herald. As well as one of the largest and most influential New Hampshire papers, the Nashua Telegraph which flips to Romney..=

…What was that about a preference cascade? List of endorsements for each side here, and Romney clearly outnumbers Obama. This matters because newspapers are a proxy for their readers.

– Ouch, the Las Vegas Review Journal – the largest daily circulation paper in Nevada doesn’t spare the flames for Obama on Benghazi, the economy and energy!

– Speaking of Benghazi… Obama revealed refusing to call it a terrorist attack on national news.

– The Wisconsin Journal joins 29 other papers in flipping to Romney – versus just 3 that flipped to Obama.

– Early voter polls seem to lean heavily for Obama, but this is actually likely due to respondents lying to look good. UPDATE: Indeed, early voting now favors Romney.

– Obama is cannibalizing Ohio early voters who would have voted for him anyway come Election Day, while Romney has focused of getting low-propensity voters in addition to likely Election Day voters. Obama counties voter turnout are down while Bush/McCain counties are up.

– Ohio early voting is seeing a 270,000 vote swing towards Romney

– Romney has cut Obama’s early voter advantage in Iowa by 75%.

– Republicans outperform Democrats in Pennsylvania absentee ballots, 55% against 36%.

– Renowned war correspondent Michael Yon anti-endorses Obama:

And there he was. Our new President. I determined to support him until he proved unworthy. Almost four years later, many people have snapped out of the trance, and that includes many non-Americans here in Asia. Obama’s magic wand has been broken over the knee of reality.

I cannot speak about the economy, education or healthcare, but I can speak about Afghanistan. Obama cannot be faulted that Afghanistan is stone-aged, or that our military strategy was wrecked when he took office. It was. The bus was in a ditch. Obama showed up with a wrecker, promising to yank it out. Today the wrecker is in the ditch atop the bus.

Our young troops are something to be proud of, and if you saw them in action you would be amazed at their courage and professionalism. The mess we shoved them into is a national shame. We provided about half the troops required for the stated strategy, then began pulling them out against a domestic political deadline that has nothing to do with the war. The surge has been a complete waste of effort.

– Lots of graphs and analysis of past data and current trends, from Dem vs GOP voter turnout, party crossover votes, Independents, the 2010 elections, nonWhite voters all point to a Romney win.

– A list of tweets via here.

– Big names including a Las Vegas odds maker predict a Romney win.

– Karl Rove lists several of the above as his reasons why he thinks Romney will win.

– On why Intrade players and Obama supporters refuse to believe that he will lose.

– Tipped by wits0: 500 high ranking military figures endorse Romney, including top generals and Pentagon brass!

– Obama could lose from 13% to 16% of supporters – who could also double the blow by voting for Romney!

Ace lays out his condensed reasons here… Especially on how it is absurd to expect LARGER Democrat turnout than in 2008 or 2010! I mean, CNN gets a 49-49 tie with D+11 – that is, with an eleven point advantage in turnout, Obama still only manages a tie! Especially when Republican affiliation advantage keeps growing.

– While back in reality, for the first time IN HISTORY, Republicans outnumber Democrats on election day according to two major polling firms!

– Less serious… The Redskin Rule favors Romney.

The Complete List of Barack Obama’s Scandals, Misdeeds, Crimes and Blunders here!

PROVEN: Republicans More Well Informed than ‘Reality-Based Community’ Democrats

October 22, 12

Via AoSHQ, from Director Blue:

In a scientific survey of 1,168 adults conducted during September and October of last year, respondents were asked not only multiple-choice questions, but also queries using maps, photographs and symbols. Among other subjects, participants identified international leaders, cabinet members, Supreme Court justices, nations on a world map, the current unemployment and poverty rates and war casualty totals.

In a 2010 Pew survey, Republicans outperformed Democrats on 10 of 12 questions, with one tie and Democrats outperforming Republicans on just 1 of the 12. In the latest survey, however, Republicans outperformed Democrats on every single one of 19 questions.

Related, Dems think the economy (THIS RECORD BREAKINGLY BAD ECONOMY!!!!) is doing just fiiiiiiiiiiine:

The Best and the Worst of the Obama vs Romney Denver Debate

October 13, 12

There are probably plenty of other dissections of Obama various skews, misdirections and outright lies… But here I’m just focusing on the lines and moments that leapt out at me. Relevant links and extras included for your additional time disappearing!

(I did some of the transcript by ear, then switched to NYT’s transcript with some modifications.)

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BEST, 5:15 – Romney: “I’ve had the occasion over the last couple of years of meeting people across the country. I was in Dayton, Ohio, and a woman grabbed my arm, and she said, I’ve been out of work since May. Can you help me?”

Romney does this several times throughout the debate – citing personal anecdotes of real people, which really serves to humanize him. Which must be very surprising to the viewer who knows Romney only from the liberal media’s portrayals:

(more…)

Four Years On, Stock Market Still Allergic to Obama

August 14, 12

In the vein of the historical Obama Speaketh, Stock Market Crasheth, American Stock Exchange ‘Celebrates’ Obama With Record CRASHES – Repeatedly!, and Dow Jones Surges After 2011 GOP Debate… Here’s a more recent update from CNBC via AoSHQ:

One analysis concludes that last week’s sharp three-day market surge can only mean that Wall Street is banking on a victory from Republican Mitt Romney.

That’s the logical interpretation one can draw from a rally amid conditions that otherwise would demand a selloff, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Adam S. Parker said in an analysis that asserts there is no other reason now to like stocks than a Romney win.

And via AoSHQ, next:


Stocks Shoot Up — This Really Might Be A Romney Rally

Stocks are taking off. Now up a bit less than 1%.

Romney rally? It could be, since there’s no equivalent rally happening in the European sovereign bond market, so it would imply that the rally is based on something stateside.

A couple other quick points:

It’s pretty well accepted dogma on Wall Street that Romney would be better for stocks.
Also, stocks got a bit of a lift last night right after the Romney victory.
The Romney win was the #1 talking point on morning analyst notes today.

Bottom line: Quite plausible.

Also noteworthy is that volume is on the high side today.

See also massive collection of telltale graphs and videos at Obama’s Economic Successes: A Roundup.

Obama’s You Didn’t Build That – Well, Roads Didn’t Build That For Sure

August 13, 12

Another in the Communist vs Capitalist vein, from IMAO:

See also North Korea vs South Korea: We Require More Minerals, Red Primer for Children and Diplomats: History of Communism in Cartoon Form, Full Version Available.

Every State That Elected a GOP Governor in 2010 Saw a Drop In Unemployment

July 16, 12

Via AosHQ via Breitbart.com:

Kansas – 6.9% to 6.1% = a decline of 0.8%

Maine – 8.0% to 7.4% = a decline of 0.6%

Michigan – 10.9% to 8.5% = a decline of 2.4%

New Mexico – 7.7% to 6.7% = a decline of 1.0%

Oklahoma – 6.2% to 4.8% = a decline of 1.4%

Pennsylvania – 8.0% to 7.4% = a decline of 0.6%

Tennessee – 9.5% to 7.9% = a decline of 1.6%

Wisconsin – 7.7% to 6.8% = a decline of 0.9%

Wyoming – 6.3% to 5.2% = a decline of 1.1%

Alabama – 9.3% to 7.4% = a decline of 1.9%

Georgia – 10.1% to 8.9% = a decline of 1.2%

South Carolina – 10.6% to 9.1% = a decline of 1.5%

South Dakota – 5.0% to 4.3% = a decline of 0.7%

Florida – 10.9% to 8.6% = a decline of 2.3%

Nevada – 13.8% to 11.6% = a decline of 2.2%

Iowa – 6.1% to 5.1% = a decline of 1.0%

Ohio – 9.0% to 7.3% = a decline of 1.7%

On the other hand, the unemployment rate in states that elected Democrats in 2010 dropped, on average, as much as the national rate decline and, in some states such as New York, the unemployment rate has risen since January of 2011.

But remember, vote Obama and his party, because, uh, coincidence.

See also related which have tons of graphs:

Obama’s Economic Successes: A Roundup

Republican Led Economy VS Democrat Led Economy

The Ryskind Sketchbook is Back

June 27, 12

And in action once again!

Blogging at his WordPress, and tweeting at this handle.

I’ve long been using his spot-on cartoons to make a point.

Conspiracy Theory: Is Anders Breivik Actually a Pro-Islam Agent?

June 25, 12

I’ve written on how Anders Breivik is a non-practising ‘Christian’ and how his usage of Scripture is entirely out of whack.

Now I’ll put myself in the mindset of conspiracy theorists and conjecture: Is Anders Breivik actually an agent provocateur for Islam?

Consider the following:

1) He claims to have carried out his shooting massacre in protest the colonization/conquest of Europe by Muslim immigrants. But who did he actually decide to kill? Not Muslims or immigrants, but Caucasians of irreligious/nominally Christian leanings.

2) He cites the Bible and argues his justification for killing. But his citations are out of context and way off, requiring incredible stretches and leaps of logic to fit his agenda. He acts nothing like a Christian, but ordinary Christians bear the brunt of the outraged backlash.

3) He claims his actions are to inspire the West to arouse from its slumber and begin resisting the ‘Muslim invasion’… But anyone with the slightest grasp of what gutless, spineless, milquetoast postmodern European sociopolitics is like (and Breivik claims to be all too aware of it) would know that an act like this would only arouse mass support for Islam, as well as give Muslim agitators potent ammunition in wringing out concessions to make up for the West’s ‘Islamophobia’.

So in one fell swoop, NO MUSLIMS ARE KILLED OR INJURED… But plenty of godless, immoral liberals lie dead. Those Islamophobic conservatives and crusader-spawn Christians take a major PR blow. And Muslims get a (for once) concrete reason for Western Politically Correct handwringing, groveling, apologizing and promises to make up to the Islamic world for the ‘hatred’ shown against their noble culture.

Even though no Muslims were actually hurt, or even directly ‘hated’, in Breivik’s attack.

However, I personally don’t believe that Anders Breivik is some sort of Islamophilic apologist for Muslims, carrying out an incredibly intricate and devious ploy to rouse public and political sympathy for Muslim immigrants (as if there wasn’t enough of that already).

How do we usually know that a terrorist attack (attempted or successful) is motivated by jihad? Their history is usually clearly marked by public proclamations of faith (e.g. Nidal Hassan‘s derision for his infidel coworkers); browsing of extremist and jihadist websites, chatrooms and message boards (e.g. many of the BUSTED terrorist wannabes that The Jawa Report regularly; and of course the telltale giveaway cries of “Allahu akhbar!” as they carry out their murder spree (e.g. Nidal Hassan again and countless others).

None of these markers were present in Anders Breivik, who spent his time polluting fascist chatrooms instead of jihadist ones. He did not ‘come out’ as a Muslim

Very seldom do we hear of a

That said, if Anders Breivik really does turn out to be a ‘secret Muslim supporter’ or a Muslim himself, then his ability to hide/fake his online history and plan out such a convoluted, Tom Clancy-esque strategy shows that is he is a cut above the rest.

‘Landslide’ Victories in US Presidential Elections: Obama vs Reagan

June 22, 12

I’ve covered Obama compared to Reagan before at here:

As well as other mentions of that great President.

Now I’ll rehash an old comment of mine that was in response to a naive Obama worshipper who mistakenly thought that Obama’s 2008 victory was anything close to a ‘landslide’.

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First, we look at the percentage of votes as follows. Wikipedia: United States presidential election, 2008:

Barack Obama vs John McCain
Electoral vote 365 vs 173
States carried 28 + DC + NE-02 vs 22
Popular vote 69,456,897 vs 59,934,814 (116:100 ratio)
Percentage 52.9% vs 45.7%

Not a very impressive map, really.

Compared to Wikipedia: United States presidential election, 1980:

Ronald Reagan vs Jimmy Carter vs John B. Anderson
Electoral vote 489 vs 49 vs 0
States carried 44 vs 6 + DC vs 0
Popular vote 43,903,230 vs 35,480,115 vs 5,719,850 (124:100:16 ratio)
Percentage 51.6% vs 41.7% vs 6.70%

Lookit that sea of red!

1980 Reagan’s 489 electoral votes clearly outstrips Obama’s 365 electoral votes. But fair enough, Reagan got 51.6% of the popular vote against Obama’s 52.9% – though one could argue that the Independent contender John B. Anderson’s 6.70% would other wise have gone to Reagan (using Anderson’s 0 electoral votes as precedent) to give the Gipper a total of 58.30%.

And a 58.30% is not a wild fantasy, because now let’s look at the even more incredible Wikipedia: United States presidential election, 1984:

Ronald Reagan vs Walter Mondale
Electoral vote 525 vs 13
States carried 49 vs 1 + DC (Head to the link and look at the map! It’s almost entirely red!)
Popular vote 54,455,472 vs 37,577,352 (145:100 ratio)
Percentage 58.8% vs 40.6%

Now even the last few blue holdouts have almost all surrendered!

So in 1984, Reagan got a far higher ratio of the electoral vote, states and popular vote than Obama in 2008. Obama is a featherweight compared to what Reagan achieved!

And note that Reagan was running for a second term, which means people voted for his 4 years of proven policies – very different from the untested Obama benefiting from anti-Bush sentiment and a crony media that refused to vet him.

In fact, adjusting for total votes cast (2008’s 129,391,711 which is 40.59% more than 1984’s 92,032,824 or 52.04% more than 1980’s 85,103,195) due to expanding population, if Reagan’s popular votes percentages were adjusted to 2008’s voting population, 1984 Reagan would have gotten 76,558,948 votes – 7,102,051 more than Obama ever managed!

Via Dan Mitchell:

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And if the 2010 elections are anything to judge by:

Then 2012 will see an even more massive landslide for the Republican nominee – just as 1980 saw Reagan first elected on the back of Carter’s failed Democrat policies!

Proven General Deliverables of Conservatism Would Influence Ideology

May 11, 12

Via AoSHQ, this snippet:

It is my belief that ideologies flourish not based upon argument or rhetoric, but when a party comes to power and then delivers the general deliverables. When a president or party is able to deliver objective goods, his ideology advances, not because people have become convinced by reason or rhetoric, but simply because they decide If they’ve got everything working smoothly, I guess that means they’re probably right about these ideological points they keep talking about, too.

This echoes with my own thinking, something I’d independently decided since my post A Short Pondering: Should a Christian Leader Impose Laws Based on Christian Standards?

I have come to the conclusion that a good solution to that problem, personally, would be: If I were to run for and become President, I would focus exclusively on jobs, the economy, energy, security etc (all the general deliverables) and would not focus on sociopolitical issues such as gay marriage, abortion, etc.

This doesn’t mean I don’t care about the latter – on the contrary, they are very crucial matters to me as a Christian.

However, my strategy would be along the lines of this passage:

I have spoken to you of earthly things and you do not believe; how then will you believe if I speak of heavenly things? – John 3:12

Namely, I would deliver such an outstanding performance on the economy and so forth (as Reagan did), that the country would have to stop and ponder: Hey, this guy’s on to something. Could it be that his way of thinking (i.e. Conservatism, Christianity) is RIGHT about things?

The pondering would start on economic, physical, worldly things of course. But then, through association and osmosis, the pondering would lead to social, philosophical and even spiritual things.

The general public would already believe me on worldly issues, so they would be likelier to believe me on spiritual issues as well… The reverse of speaking of earthly things which people don’t believe.

To wit, the observable effectiveness of my worldly policies would convince people that my social/spiritual ideas probable are right too.

PS. Ace continues:

And I believe the contrary: Liberalism will suffer greatly due to Obama’s Miserable Failure, the same as it did under Jimmy Carter.

Which is proven, Obama’s amazing economic ineptness has caused more and more Americans to become Conservatives.


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